Macroeconomic shocks and business cycle dynamics: a comparative analysis

Cosmas Dery and Apostolos Serletis

Oxford Economic Papers, 2026, vol. 78, issue 1, 233-258

Abstract: We contribute to the literature on business cycles by undertaking a comprehensive comparative assessment of the relative importance of supply, demand, and monetary policy shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations in the USA, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the euro area. Using structural Bayesian VAR models with sign, magnitude, and zero restrictions, we identify supply, demand, and monetary policy disturbances. We conduct both country-specific and cross-country comparisons, focusing on the post-1990s period when most countries adopted inflation targeting. We find that supply and demand shocks dominate monetary policy shocks in explaining output and inflation dynamics. While output fluctuations are primarily driven by either supply or demand shocks, depending on the country, inflation variation consistently stemmed from demand shocks, with monetary policy shocks typically contributing less than 10 per cent. The findings shed light on the recent drivers of output and inflation across major economies.

Keywords: supply shocks; demand shocks; monetary policy shocks; output; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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