Signalling with Private Monitoring

Gonzalo Cisternas and Aaron Kolb

The Review of Economic Studies, 2025, vol. 92, issue 2, 909-953

Abstract: We study dynamic signalling when the sender does not see the signals that her actions generate. The sender then uses her past play to forecast what a receiver believes, in turn forcing the receiver to forecast the previous forecast, and so forth. We identify a class of linear-quadratic-Gaussian games where this endogenous higher-order uncertainty can be handled. The sender’s second-order belief is key: it is a private state that she controls, and it creates a new channel for information transmission. We examine the role of higher-order uncertainty and this new signalling channel in applications to macroeconomics, reputation, and trading: inflationary biases under discretion can be larger; career-concerned agents may benefit from not knowing their reputations; and informed trades can carry more price impact. We also introduce an existence method for boundary value problems that can be used in other dynamic games.

Keywords: Signalling; Private monitoring; Higher-order beliefs; Learning; Brownian motion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:restud:v:92:y:2025:i:2:p:909-953.

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