Using a Decision Support Framework to Evaluate Forecasts

Wayne I. Park, Philip Garcia and Raymond M. Leuthold

Review of Agricultural Economics, 1989, vol. 11, issue 2, 233-242

Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between statistical measures of forecast accuracy and decision support for determining the most useful forecast method. A decision framework is examined with forecasts used to guide trading decisions of a hog producer, buyer and speculator in the hog market. Out-of-sample forecasts from various models are evaluated using mean square error and returns from trading decisions under risk-efficiency criteria. The results emphasize the importance of evaluating forecasts within specific decision-making situations.

Date: 1989
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