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Consumption Volatility and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Roméo Tédongap

Review of Finance, 2015, vol. 19, issue 1, 367-405

Abstract: I derive and test multi-horizon implications of a consumption-based equilibrium model featuring fluctuating expected growth and volatility. My setup allows consumption dynamics to be estimated jointly with covariance risk prices in a single-stage generalized method of moment, and then inferences from asset pricing tests reflect uncertainty coming from factor estimation. I show that changes in consumption volatility are the key driver for explaining major asset pricing anomalies across risk horizons, while other factors play no or a secondary role. Value stocks and past long-term losers pay higher average returns mainly because they covary more negatively with these changes than what other stocks do.

Date: 2015
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