 Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory*Peter Carr and Liuren Wu Review of Finance, 2023, vol. 27, issue 3, 997-1026 Abstract: Classic bond pricing centralizes bond valuation across all maturities by specifying the dynamics of the short-term interest rate. This article develops a decentralized theory that prices each bond based purely on the near-term behavior of the bond’s own yield. The theory levers the domain expertise of an investor on a particular bond and allows the investor to make pricing and investment analysis on the bond without the shackles of an ambitious centralizing mandate. The theory decomposes the short-term return on a bond with respect to the variation of its own yield. Imposing no dynamic arbitrage on the return decomposition leads to a simple pricing equation relating the bond yield to the market pricing and conditional mean and variance forecasts of the yield’s near-term change. The article illustrates the theory’s applications in decentralized investment of a single bond and in the construction and investment of decentralized butterfly bond portfolios. Keywords: Bond return decomposition; Yield decomposition; Duration; Convexity; Carry effect; Expectation; Risk premium; Local commonality; Butterfly trades (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:revfin:v:27:y:2023:i:3:p:997-1026. Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Review of Finance is currently edited by Marcin Kacperczyk More articles in Review of Finance from European Finance Association Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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