Return extrapolation and dividends

Brad Cannon and John Lynch

Review of Finance, 2025, vol. 29, issue 4, 1009-1042

Abstract: We provide evidence that dividend-paying stocks are less exposed to return extrapolation than non-dividend-paying stocks. In particular, social media sentiment and analyst price targets of dividend-paying stocks are significantly less sensitive to past returns. Our findings indicate that this difference stems from price changes playing a larger role in extrapolation and dividends diverting attention away from price changes for dividend-paying stocks. Consistent with models of return extrapolation, dividend-paying stocks earn lower momentum and long-term reversal returns. The value premium, however, is similar among both groups. Collectively, our findings suggest that return extrapolation is an important source of some anomaly returns.

Keywords: return extrapolation; dividends; beliefs; anomalies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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