 Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest RateChristopher S. Jones The Review of Financial Studies, 2003, vol. 16, issue 3, 793-843 Abstract: Using a new Bayesian method for the analysis of diffusion processes, this article finds that the nonlinear drift in interest rates found in a number of previous studies can be confirmed only under prior distributions that are best described as informative. The assumption of stationarity, which is common in the literature, represents a nontrivial prior belief about the shape of the drift function. This belief and the use of "flat" priors contribute strongly to the finding of nonlinear mean reversion. Implementation of an approximate Jeffreys prior results in virtually no evidence for mean reversion in interest rates unless stationarity is assumed. Finally, the article documents that nonlinear drift is primarily a feature of daily rather than monthly data, and that these data contain a transitory element that is not reflected in the volatility of longer-maturity yields. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press. Date: 2003 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:3:p:793-843 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Review of Financial Studies is currently edited by Itay Goldstein More articles in The Review of Financial Studies from Society for Financial Studies Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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