A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets

Ravi Bansal and Ivan Shaliastovich

The Review of Financial Studies, 2013, vol. 26, issue 1, 1-33

Abstract: We show that bond risk premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a long-run risks model with timevarying volatilities of expected growth and inflation. The model simultaneously accounts for bond return predictability and violations of uncovered interest parity in currency markets. We find that preference for early resolution of uncertainty, time-varying volatilities, and non-neutral effects of inflation on growth are important to account for these aspects of asset markets. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Date: 2013
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Working Paper: A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets (2012)
Working Paper: A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets (2012)
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