Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

The Review of Financial Studies, 2017, vol. 30, issue 11, 3711-3758

Abstract: This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy. First, the preemption regulation resulted in an 11% increase in annual lending in the 2004–2006 period, which is associated with a 3.3% rise in annual house price growth rate and a 2.2% expansion of employment in nontradable sectors. This was followed by a sharp decline in subsequent years. Furthermore, we show that the increase in the supply of credit reduced delinquencies during boom years, but increased them in bust years. Received June 7, 2015; editorial decision December 22, 2016 by Editor Robin Greenwood.

JEL-codes: E20 E30 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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