Subnational Income, Growth, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

M Ali Choudhary, Ilaria Dal Barco, Ijlal A Haqqani, Federico Lenzi and Nicola Limodio

The World Bank Economic Review, 2025, vol. 39, issue 2, 362-376

Abstract: Using real-time data and machine-learning methods, we produce monthly aggregates on gross national income (GNI) for 147 Pakistani districts between 2012 and 2021. We use them to understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the growth and subnational distribution of income in Pakistan. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, districts experienced a sizable decline in income during the pandemic, as their monthly growth rate dropped on average by 0.133 percentage points. Second, a larger income drop took place in districts with a higher COVID-19 incidence, which correspond to urban areas characterized by a higher population density. Third, COVID-19 caused a decline in income inequality across districts, with richer districts experiencing more negative income growth during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; growth; satellite data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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