Impact of Twin Lockdowns on Hunger, Labor-Market Outcomes, and Household Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Uganda

Paul Brandily, Eric Mvukiyehe, Lodewijk Smets, Peter van der Windt and Marijke Verpoorten

The World Bank Economic Review, 2025, vol. 39, issue 3, 731-762

Abstract: Uganda had two of the strictest COVID-19 lockdowns in Sub-Saharan Africa. These severe lockdowns provide a unique case study for understanding the implications of such public-health measures on economic well-being. We use longitudinal data to examine the lockdowns’ short- and medium-term impacts on household food insecurity, labor-market outcomes, and coping strategies. Lockdowns significantly exacerbated food insecurity immediately and continued to do so in the medium term. The effect was more pronounced after the second lockdown, likely from a combination of reduced resilience after the first lockdown and lower-than-normal rainfall immediately before. There were substantial decreases in income from various sources—including agriculture, non-farm businesses, and wage employment—contributing to the heightened food insecurity. Notably, agricultural households were less adversely affected, and there was a significant switch to agricultural activities as a coping mechanism. The other coping mechanisms households typically rely on for idiosyncratic shocks, such as remittances and government assistance, failed, contributing to the sizeable increase in food insecurity.

Date: 2025
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