Volume, Risk, Complexity: What Makes Development Finance Projects Succeed or Fail?

Yota Eilers, Jochen Kluve, Jörg Langbein and Lennart Reiners

The World Bank Economic Review, 2026, vol. 40, issue 1, 172-195

Abstract: This study presents a quantitative analysis of the determinants of success—and failure—of bilateral development finance projects, based on a unique database covering 5,608 project evaluation results. Linking project success ratings to a comprehensive and partly novel set of explanatory factors along the project life cycle, four research hypotheses are investigated, finding that (I) development finance projects with comprehensive financing are (slightly) more successful, in particular budget funds show a significant positive correlation; (II) the project structure does not significantly influence project success; (III) more-complex development finance projects are less successful, in particular in terms of technical complexity and longer implementation duration; (IV) riskier projects are significantly less successful.

Keywords: development finance; OECD DAC evaluation criteria; meta analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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