 Were the Crises in Eurozone Countries Predictable?Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, 2012, vol. XII, issue 3, 10 Abstract: This paper is based on finding the characteristics that could have made the crises in weaker Eurozone economies forecastable based on lagged time series analysed as a set of binary models estimated with the extreme value approach which is suitable for irregular non stationary data on rare events. This method has been used in order to predict the possibility of rare events such as earthquakes, floods or other unpredictable by trend disasters. This methodology has major advantages compared to probit or logit approaches. The absence of currency volatility due to monetary union participation makes this crisis analysis unique and extends the definition of the possible incidents. My sample consists of four countries bailed-out by European Union and IMF joint mechanism (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland and Portugal respectively) and covers a seventeen years period (1995-2012).The results show that explanatory variables predicted the incidents of bailout. Keywords: Crisis; Early Warning Systems; Extreme events (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:xii:y:2012:i:3:p:10 Access Statistics for this article Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series is currently edited by Spatariu Cerasela More articles in Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series from Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences Contact information at EDIRC. |
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