Copper Tenure Versus Inflation. Austerity is not Over. What are the Commodities Trends Tell us About the Economy?

Cristina Drumea

Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, 2014, vol. XIV, issue 1, 291-295

Abstract: The European official reports are recording that the European Union had edged its way out of the 24 months recession. The prognosis for the Romanian economy is also cautiously optimistic, as indicated by local authorities as well as independent reports. In the present paper, we illustrate that this optimism is not warranted and that other, more relevant, proxy indicators are suggesting that the economic strife is to possibly be continued although there are some positive evolutions on indicators. Nevertheless, we are still in the era of frugality and still there's no alternative to the public austerity. We contend that the commodities prices are historically tracking the economy better, especially copper and that the official data should be only an adjunct to commodity watching for the purpose of economic forecasting. We also show that the useful signal is drowned in the noise of public monetary policies in many other countries all over the world.

Keywords: correlation; commodities; GDP; marginal rate; austerity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 O1 O2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:xiv:y:2014:i:1:p:291-295

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