Secular Outlook for Global Growth: 2015–34

Irina Tytell, Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly and Dirk Hofschire

Business Economics, 2016, vol. 51, issue 1, 18-26

Abstract: Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team employs a multi-time-horizon asset allocation approach that analyzes trends among three temporal segments: tactical (short term), business cycle (medium term), and secular (long term). This report focuses exclusively on secular trends that may influence the long-term outlook for various asset classes. Key takeaways are the following:• Slower growth is expected to result in a historically lower interest-rate climate and less of a tailwind to equities. • With the economy providing the backdrop for asset markets, our secular GDP growth forecasts are the foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions. • Our forward-looking, global approach emphasizes the key components of GDP growth—population and productivity—and calculates the critical drivers that have been most predictive. • Over the next 20 years, global growth is expected to be somewhat slower, due primarily to deteriorating demographics in most countries, particularly aging populations in advanced economies. • Emerging Asia is expected to grow more slowly, due in part to less catch-up potential after a period of rapid growth, though developing economies in general should continue to experience faster relative growth. • Slower world growth will lead to lower-than-historical-average interest rates and provide less of a boost to equity returns, but global opportunities for investment are still expected to expand.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v51/n1/pdf/be20168a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v51/n1/full/be20168a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:buseco::v:51:y:2016:i:1:p:18-26

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11369

Access Statistics for this article

Business Economics is currently edited by Charles Steindel

More articles in Business Economics from Palgrave Macmillan, National Association for Business Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().