Potential Growth of the U.S. Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue&quest

Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho and Kevin J Stiroh ()
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Kevin J Stiroh: Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY, 10045, USA.

Business Economics, 2006, vol. 41, issue 1, 7-16

Abstract: This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth through 2004 and presents medium-term projections for the U.S. economy. We attribute a substantial portion of productivity gains over the past decade to production and use of information technology equipment and software. In the most recent years, we also identify a growing contribution from sources outside the technology-producing sectors. Our base-case projection for the GDP growth rate is almost exactly three percent. We emphasize the substantial range of uncertainty by presenting an optimistic projection of 3.5 percent and a pessimistic projection of only 1.9 percent.Business Economics (2006) 41, 7–16; doi:10.2145/20060101

Date: 2006
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