The Long Wave Revisited

Thomas W Synnott

Business Economics, 2012, vol. 47, issue 2, 119-125

Abstract: A key question for businesses and investors is whether the low inflation and low long-term interest rates we are now experiencing are a business cycle or a longer-term phenomenon. This paper updates and expands my earlier study on long waves [Synnott 1995]. Using this analytical perspective, I conclude that it is likely that high-grade, long-term bond yields will remain low, especially in real terms, for several years. Low long-term real interest rates for an extended period give the United States a major opportunity for investment and growth, as in previous long-term cycles, provided that appropriate government policies and plans are in place.

Date: 2012
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