Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?

Michael A. Brown () and Michael Pugliese
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Michael A. Brown: Wells Fargo Securities
Michael Pugliese: Wells Fargo Securities

Business Economics, 2016, vol. 51, issue 4, No 8, 260-265

Abstract: Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.

Keywords: presidential elections; business cycles; GDP growth; macroeconomics; macroeconomy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y

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