EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors

Olivier Blanchard () and Daniel Leigh

IMF Economic Review, 2014, vol. 62, issue 2, 179-212

Abstract: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v62/n2/pdf/imfer201417a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v62/n2/full/imfer201417a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:2:p:179-212

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41308/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in IMF Economic Review from Palgrave Macmillan, International Monetary Fund
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-12
Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:2:p:179-212