Uncertainty, Bank Lending, and Bank-Level Heterogeneity

Claudia Buch, Manuel Buchholz and Lena Tonzer

IMF Economic Review, 2015, vol. 63, issue 4, 919-954

Abstract: We analyze how uncertainty affects bank lending. We measure uncertainty as the cross-sectional dispersion of shocks to bank-level variables. Comparing this measure of uncertainty in banking to more traditional measures of uncertainty, we find similar but no identical patterns. Higher uncertainty in banking has negative effects on bank lending. This effect is heterogeneous across banks: lending by banks that are better capitalized and have higher liquidity buffers tends to be affected less. Also, the degree of internationalization matters, as loan supply by banks in financially open countries is affected less by uncertainty. The impact of the ownership status of the individual bank is less important, in contrast.

Date: 2015
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