Growth—Now and Forever?

Giang Ho and Paolo Mauro
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Giang Ho: IMF’s African Department

IMF Economic Review, 2016, vol. 64, issue 3, No 6, 526-547

Abstract: Abstract Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff’s Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, the article shows that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, the article shows that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.

Keywords: O47; E17; H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Working Paper: Growth: Now and Forever? (2014)
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DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2016.12

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