Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Guy Debelle () and Douglas Laxton

IMF Staff Papers, 1997, vol. 44, issue 2, 249-282

Abstract: Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU, we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macro-economic policy debate are that policymakers who are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

JEL-codes: C51 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (100)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867544?origin=pubexport main text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States (1996)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:44:y:1997:i:2:p:249-282

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41308/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in IMF Staff Papers from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().