Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

Graciela Kaminsky (), Saul Lizondo and Carmen Reinhart
Additional contact information
Saul Lizondo: International Monetary Fund

IMF Staff Papers, 1998, vol. 45, issue 1, 1-48

Abstract: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

JEL-codes: F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1220)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867328?origin=pubexport main text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Leading Indicators of Currency Crises (1998)
Working Paper: Leading indicators of currency crises (1997)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:1:p:1-48

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/41308/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in IMF Staff Papers from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().