Technology and Epidemics

Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin

IMF Staff Papers, 2002, vol. 49, issue 3, 6

Abstract: Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

JEL-codes: O1 O39 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Working Paper: Technology and Epidemics (1999)
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