Technology and Epidemics

Alberto Chong and Luisa Zanforlin

No 1999/125, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Keywords: WP; rate of growth; epidemic pattern; upper bound; growth; epidemics; logistic; technology transfer; machinery and equipment; GMM system estimator method; technology coefficient; high-rate-of contagion interval; Estimation techniques; Imports; Emerging technologies; Stocks; East Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 1999-09-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Journal Article: Technology and Epidemics (2002)
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