International Tourist Arrivals In Thailand: Forecasting With Arfima-Figarch Approach

Kanchana Chokethaworn, Thanes Sriwichailamphan, Songsak Sriboonchitta, Chukiat Chaiboonsri (), Jittaporn Sriboonjit and Prasert Chaitip
Additional contact information
Kanchana Chokethaworn: Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Chukiat Chaiboonsri: Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Jittaporn Sriboonjit: Thammassat University, Thailand

Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, 2010, vol. 10, issue 2, 75-84

Abstract: Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for the period of 2009-2010. Research results during this period confirm that the best forecasting method based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) model is ARFIMA(1,-0.45,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.07,1). Furthermore, this model predicts that the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will not go up or be constant. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thai government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop the tourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand urgently.

Keywords: Thailand; ARFIMA-FIGARCH method; International Tourists (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://upet.ro/annals/economics/pdf/2010/20100208.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:75-84

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics from University of Petrosani, Romania
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Imola Driga ().