Forecasting with X-12-Arima: International Tourist Arrivals to India

Prasert Chaitip, Chukiat Chaiboonsri, N. Rangaswamy and Siriporn Mcdowall
Additional contact information
Chukiat Chaiboonsri: Bangalore University, India
N. Rangaswamy: Bangalore University, India
Siriporn Mcdowall: Rosen College of Hospitality Management University of Central Florida, Orlando, USA

Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, 2009, vol. 9, issue 1, 107-128

Abstract: Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 based on the period 2002-2006. The results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1). Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,190 million, 6,224,490 million and 6,796,990 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and private tourism industry sector should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals to India in this period.

Keywords: India; international tourism; X-12-ARIMA; the best forecasting methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://upet.ro/annals/economics/pdf/2009/20090112.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:1:y:2009:p:107-128

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics from University of Petrosani, Romania
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Imola Driga ().