Economics at your fingertips  

Down Trend Forecasting Method with ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand

Prasert Chaitip and Chukiat Chaiboonsri
Additional contact information
Chukiat Chaiboonsri: Bangalore University, India

Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, 2009, vol. 9, issue 1, 143-150

Abstract: Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q) or fractionally integrated moving average(ARFIMA). The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for during period of 2009. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on ARFIMA(p,d,q) method is ARFIMA(0,0.443,1). Furthermore these methods predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for during period of 2009 will be both down trend and constant trend. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that the both Thailand government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of this country need to both develop tourism market of Thailand more and develop tourism product in Thailand more too.

Keywords: Thailand; Down Trend Forecasting Method; ARFIMA method; International tourists (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics from University of Petrosani, Romania
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Imola Driga ().

Page updated 2021-10-04
Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:1:y:2009:p:143-150