Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta, Tegan Maharaj, Martin Weiss, Nasim Rahaman, Hannah Alsdurf, Nanor Minoyan, Soren Harnois-Leblanc, Joanna Merckx, Andrew Williams, Victor Schmidt, Pierre-Luc St-Charles, Akshay Patel, Yang Zhang, David L Buckeridge, Christopher Pal, Bernhard Schölkopf and Yoshua Bengio

PLOS Digital Health, 2023, vol. 2, issue 3, 1-19

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting daily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.Author summary: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed the capacity of many governments undertaking contact tracing. Digital tracing applications, which automate the contact tracing process by sensing proximity between users, can limit the spread of infectious diseases, thereby reducing this burden. Though helpful in averting cases, especially when a sufficient number of people use them, such apps, due to the inefficient use of information sources, have important socioeconomic costs when lots of uninfected individuals are asked to stay at home. We proposed a digital contact tracing framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information to predict whether a given individual is likely to be infectious on any given day, and recommends appropriately cautious behaviors. We designed Rule-based PCT algorithm as an interpretable PCT algorithm, with the rules designed in a close collaboration with epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. With the help of a detailed simulator, we examined how Rule-based PCT performs in comparison to a) quarantining household members, and b) recommending a fixed quarantine to digital contacts of cases identified through testing. Our cost-effective method was better able to control the epidemic while minimizing restrictions on human activity, under a wide range of simulation parameters. Our PCT framework efficiently leverages data and uses predictions to generate early warning signals and prevent cases from infecting others. Such proactive methods should be considered alongside existing interventions, including in the context of low compliance to social distancing and emergence of highly-infectious variants capable of evading vaccine-based protection.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pdig00:0000199

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000199

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