Assessing perioperative risks in a mixed elderly surgical population using machine learning: A multi-objective symbolic regression approach to cardiorespiratory fitness derived from cardiopulmonary exercise testing

Pietro Arina, Davide Ferrari, Maciej R Kaczorek, Nicholas Tetlow, Amy Dewar, Robert Stephens, Daniel Martin, Ramani Moonesinghe, Mervyn Singer, John Whittle and Evangelos B Mazomenos

PLOS Digital Health, 2025, vol. 4, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: Accurate preoperative risk assessment is of great value to both patients and clinical teams. Several risk scores have been developed but are often not calibrated to the local institution, limited in terms of data input into the underlying models, and/or lack individual precision. Machine Learning (ML) models have the potential to address limitations in existing scoring systems. A database of 1190 elderly patients who underwent major elective surgery was analyzed retrospectively. Preoperative cardiorespiratory fitness data from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), demographic and clinical data were extracted and integrated into advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms. Multi-Objective-Symbolic-Regression (MOSR), a novel algorithm utilizing Genetic Programming to generate mathematical formulae for learning tasks, was employed to predict patient morbidity at Postoperative Day 3, as defined by the PostOperative Morbidity Survey (POMS). Shapley-Additive-exPlanations (SHAP) was subsequently used to analyze feature contributions. Model performance was benchmarked against existing risk prediction scores, namely the Portsmouth-Physiological-and-Operative-Severity-Score-for-the-Enumeration-of-Mortality-and-Morbidity (PPOSSUM) and the Duke-Activity-Status-Index, as well as linear regression using CPET features. A model was also developed for the same task using data directly extracted from the CPET time-series. The incorporation of cardiorespiratory fitness data enhanced the performance of all models for predicting postoperative morbidity by 20% compared to sole reliance on clinical data. Cardiorespiratory fitness features demonstrated greater importance than clinical features in the SHAP analysis. Models utilizing data taken directly from the CPET time-series demonstrated a 12% improvement over the cardiorespiratory fitness models. MOSR model surpassed all other models in every experiment, demonstrating excellent robustness and generalization capabilities. Integrating cardiorespiratory fitness data with ML models enables improved preoperative prediction of postoperative morbidity in elective surgical patients. The MOSR model stands out for its capacity to pinpoint essential features and build models that are both simple and accurate, showing excellent generalizability.Author summary: Accurately predicting postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing surgery remains a significant challenge. Traditional risk scores often fail to account for key physiological indicators such as cardiorespiratory fitness, which can provide valuable insights into a patient’s overall health and resilience. In this study, we explored whether integrating cardiorespiratory fitness data into machine learning models could improve the prediction of postoperative morbidity. We introduced a novel approach using Multi-Objective Symbolic Regression (MOSR), an interpretable machine learning technique that balances accuracy with simplicity. Our results show that models incorporating fitness data—particularly those using MOSR—significantly outperformed both conventional risk scores and other machine learning models. These findings highlight the value of combining domain-specific physiological data with advanced analytics to enhance clinical decision-making. By improving risk stratification, this approach has the potential to support more personalized peri-operative care and better outcomes for elderly surgical patients.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pdig00:0000851

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000851

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