The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia

Christoph Engel and Hanjo Hamann

PLOS ONE, 2016, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-22

Abstract: The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0159815

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159815

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