Tax Revenue Prediction under Condition of Imperfect Control over Tax-Collecting Authority
Predikce daňových příjmů v podmínkách nedokonalé kontroly daňových úřadů
Stanislav Klazar ()
Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, 2006, vol. 2006, issue 3, 48-62
Public revenue forecasts should be accurate and unbiased, it means they should be the best estimates (in statistical view) of expected receipts. This paper analyzes the possible reasons for biased (overestimated or underestimated) tax revenue forecasts. Our modification of Danninger's theoretical model demonstrates that systematically (over a long period) and intentionally (deliberately) biased revenue forecasts can be result of the government's (principal's) attempt to increase the effort of tax-collecting authority (agent) to collect revenue. We carry out empirical analysis to test one of the model implications - relation between effort and relative grow of tax revenue. We use data from the years 2004 and 2005 for Corporate Income Tax collected in 16 tax-collecting authorities.
Keywords: revenue forecast; principal; agent; biased forecast; agency theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H2 H3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
free of charge
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2006:y:2006:i:3:id:86:p:48-62
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Redakce Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
Access Statistics for this article
Acta Oeconomica Pragensia is currently edited by Klára Šimůnková
More articles in Acta Oeconomica Pragensia from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().