Government Tax Forecasting: Ex Ante Appraisal and Ex Post Evaluation of Accuracy in the Czech Republic

Vládní daňové predikce: ex ante odhady a ex post hodnocení přesnosti v České republice

Ondřej Bayer

Český finanční a účetní časopis, 2011, vol. 2011, issue 1, 42-54

Abstract: The article is based on evaluation of government's tax revenue forecasting in Czech Republic between years 2004 and 2007. For evaluation of government forecasting are used ex-post and ex-ante methods. Within the scope of ex-ante method are described methods of regression analysis and time-lines decomposition. Next part is aimed on most frequent errors in statistic forecasting and creation of evaluations. In the part of Ex-post forecasting are described microsimulation measured on Czech tax system between years 2004 and 2007. Government forecasts are evaluated by quality and realized errors are pinpointed.

Keywords: Forecast; Tax revenue; Evaluation; Predikce; Daňové výnosy; Hodnocení (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.96

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