Quantitative Forecast of Demand for Life Insurance in CR in 2015-2018: Macroeconomic Growth versus Industry Restructuring

Kvantitativní prognóza poptávky po životním pojištění v ČR v letech 2015-2018: makroekonomický růst versus odvětvová restrukturalizace

Jiří Šindelář

Český finanční a účetní časopis, 2016, vol. 2016, issue 1, 5-23

Abstract: The article deals with quantitative forecast of demand for life insurance in Czech Rep. in years 2015-2018. In order to derive the forecast, causal model created on behalf of OECD member states, including macroeconomic, demographic as well as social variables was utilized. As an equivalent for the demand itself, density of life insurance in population was employed. The results show that in current period of economic growth, the consumption of life insurance should increase as well; that is, however, in sharp contrast with real development in the first half-year of 2015. This contradiction is probably a consequence of changes in insurance distribution, which recently culminated with public discussion on regulation of intermediaries´ commissions. Subsequent alternative scenario of commission cap was modelled as well, with the results indicating fundamental supply-demand implications.

Keywords: Life insurance; Forecast; Life insurance density; Demand; Životní pojištění; Prognóza; Hustota životního pojištění; Poptávka (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G17 G22 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.465.html (text/html)
http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.465.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:id:465:p:5-23

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Český finanční a účetní časopis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
http://cfuc.vse.cz

DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.465

Access Statistics for this article

Český finanční a účetní časopis is currently edited by Karel Brůna

More articles in Český finanční a účetní časopis from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().