Analysis of the export and import function of the Czech Republic: aggregate and structural view

Analýza exportní a importní funkce ČR - agregovaný a strukturální pohled

Filip Pastucha

Český finanční a účetní časopis, 2021, vol. 2021, issue 2, 5-26

Abstract: The article deals with modelling of the import and export function of the Czech Republic with an emphasis on the structural view of foreign trade. As the Czech economy is a very open one, a detailed quantification of the variables affecting foreign trade may be crucial for the future direction of economic policy. The models are constructed using a cointegration or an error correction model distinguishing between short-run and long-run relationships. In addition, VAR models of disaggregated import and export functions are constructed using SITC groups examining whether there is a significant difference in the explanatory variables relative to the overall model. In the import function, the statistical significance of domestic demand characterized by absorption is confirmed in line with theory. Imports do not respond to the real exchange rate in the short run, but in the long run they already respond in line with theory. The import intensity of exports (the explanatory variable exports) came out significant. This confirms the import intensity, which the Czech economy has been struggling with for a long time. In the case of the export function, the important explanatory variable is external demand expressed in terms of EU GDP. The real exchange rate has an effect consistent with theory in the short run, but in the long run the estimated sign in front of the explanatory variable is inconsistent with theory. Domestic demand in the form of private and government consumption affects exports negatively. The disaggregated models did not show significant differences from the overall model for both imports and exports.

Keywords: Export function; Import function; Cointegration; Error correction model; VAR model; Exportní funkce; Importní funkce; Kointegrace; Model korekce chyby (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.560.html (text/html)
http://cfuc.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.cfuc.560.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2021:y:2021:i:2:id:560:p:5-26

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Český finanční a účetní časopis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
http://cfuc.vse.cz

DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.560

Access Statistics for this article

Český finanční a účetní časopis is currently edited by Karel Brůna

More articles in Český finanční a účetní časopis from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().