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Prognóza vývoje české ekonomiky v letech 2000 a 2001

Prediction of development of the czech economy in 2000 and 2001

Jiří Křovák and Jan Filáček

Politická ekonomie, 2000, vol. 2000, issue 3

Abstract: We predict that GDP will grow 1.5 % in 2000 after falling 0.2 % in 1999. Sluggish growth in 2000 will be driven by domestic demand, namely fixed investment. Interest rates set by the CNB are now in a "parking zone". Two-week repo rate remains at 5.25 %. We do not expect any significant (upward) changes during the course of this year. We expected average annual inflation (CPI) to increase to 3.8 % in 2000. Unemployment will rise to 10.8 % (at yearend) and employment will decline by 2 %. Real wages will grow by modest 1.6 %. We predict that the trade gap will widen to CZK 85 bil. and the current account deficit will comprise some 2.4 % of GDP in 2000. The CZK against the euro will be more or less nominally stagnant.

Keywords: Czech Economy; macroeconomic analysis; economic growth; inflation; unemployment; wages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.142

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