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Predikce využívající experimentální trhy

Predictions using experimental markets

Tomas Cahlik (), Adam Gersl, Michal Hlaváček () and Michael Berlemann ()

Politická ekonomie, 2003, vol. 2003, issue 6

Abstract: According to the effective market theory, the stock prize on an effective market is the best estimate of the stock's current value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. This article describes the first experimental market organised in the Czech Republic, the experimental political market for Czech parliamentary elections in June 2002. In the beginning we briefly describe the methodology of the predictions via electronic markets. Than we give some description of our market- number of traders, their individual results, development of the market activity in time, etc. Finally we compare the result of our election market with the traditional opinion polls. On the basis of his comparison we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the prediction using the experimental markets.

Keywords: experimental economics; experimental political markets; predictions; simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C90 D80 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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