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Srovnání konvergence ekonomik ČR a vybraných zemí eurozóny na základě analýzy funkcí odezvy a nabídkových či poptávkových šoků

Comparing the Convergence of Czech Economy with Selected Euro Zone Members Using Impulse-Response Functions and Supply and Demand Shocks

Roman Hušek and Tomáš Formánek

Politická ekonomie, 2011, vol. 2011, issue 3, 291-309

Abstract: Our paper focuses on the analysis of supply and demand shocks and on the estimation of expected costs of introducing Euro currency into Czech Republic (CR). The analysis is based on the theory of optimal currency areas by Mundell (1961, 1973) and uses a macroeconomic approach formalized by Bayoumi (1994). VAR models and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition (Blanchard and Quah, 1989) are used in order to simulate aggregated macroeconomic impulse response dynamics and to isolate supply and demand shocks for further inspection. Based on the analysis performed we conclude that given current circumstances and persistent differences in symmetry of economic shocks in CR and selected Euro zone countries, the costs from introducing the Euro to CR (as measured by fluctuations of real macroeconomic variables) would be nonzero, however presumably not significantly different from equivalent costs experienced in Austria or Slovakia (i.e. not prohibitive or signifi cantly damaging).

Keywords: impulse-response analysis; optimum currency area; VAR model; macroeconomic convergence; supply and demand shocks; Blanchard-Quah decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C65 E17 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.792

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