Vliv trhu mezistatků na úspěšnost prognóz ekonomické aktivity

Influence of the Intermediate Goods Market on the Success of Economic Activity Forecasts

Václav Rybáček

Politická ekonomie, 2015, vol. 2015, issue 3, 331-346

Abstract: Predictions of economic activity are sine qua non of economic policy. Nevertheless, predictions are characterised by the high level of inaccuracy; the main aim of the paper is to provide a potential theoretical explanation of frequent failures by focusing on the refl ection of real market proces in forecasting apparatus. It is argued that the role of intermediate products is underestimated in the considerations of future development of economic activity, even if these has presumably higher relevance to the level of economic activity in the future. Mutual relation between expenditures on consumption and production expense is discussed and verifi ed by use of econometric tools. It is found that even if there is long-term relation between consumption and production expenditures, from the short-term perspective, actual consumption does not have statistically signifi cant impact on future decisions of producers.

Keywords: GDP; forecasting; economic activity; derived demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E01 E27 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1006

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