Akciový trh verzus reálna ekonomika a jej indikátor HDP

The Stock Market versus the Real Economy and its Indicator GDP

Božena Chovancová and Peter Árendáš

Politická ekonomie, 2016, vol. 2016, issue 8, 939-952

Abstract: The idea of a positive relation between the real economy and share markets used to be supported by long-term analyses during the 20th century. As a result, the share market was supposed to be a "mirror" of the economy. The share markets tended to outrun the GDP development by a couple of quarters. On the other hand some researchers keep on pointing at some anomalies in the relation between share markets and the real economy in the short-term to midd-term time horizon in some countries. This problem was fully to see over the first decade of the 21st century that was typical for the changes in the structure of the global economy as well as for the increasing frequency of share market bubbles without an adequate economic growth. The aim of this paper is to show a new perspective on the relation between the share market and the real economy and to seek the reasons of their often contradictory development.

Keywords: stock market; indicators of economic development; economic cycle; market capita-lization; derivatives on stock market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1119

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