Využití metod analýzy přežití pro modelování doby nezaměstnanosti v České republice

The Use of Survival Analysis Methods for the Modelling of Unemployment in the Czech Republic

Adam Čabla and Ivana Malá

Politická ekonomie, 2017, vol. 2017, issue 4, 501-519

Abstract: Unemployment belongs to the most serious economic and social problems of developed countries. The problem can be described by the unemployment rate or number of the unemployed, in this text a duration of unemployment is of interest. The unemployment duration in the Czech Republic in 2008, 2010 and 2014 is analysed with the use of survival analysis methods and a finite mixture of lognormal distributions is used to describe an overall distribution of unemployment spell as well as the component distributions given by gender and education of the unemployed. Data from the Labour Force Sample Survey (performed by the Czech Statistical Office) are used for the statistical analysis. The unemployment duration is given in the questionnaire of the survey in intervals, we supposed the data to be right or interval censored, exact values of the unemployment duration are not included in the data. The strong positive effect of education on the duration of unemployment is quantified, as well as a less distinctive gender gap. An increase in unemployment duration is quantified for the period of economic crisis with respect to periods before (2008) and after (2014) the crisis.

Keywords: unemployment duration; censored data; finite mixture of probability distributions; survival analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C24 C41 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1157

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