Stress Testing of Non-financial Corporate Sector: A Top-down Input-output Framework
Politická ekonomie, 2022, vol. 2022, issue 2, 158-192
This paper provides a framework for conducting simulations and stress testing in the non-financial corporate sector. It relies on national accounting and uses a set of input-output tables to track the propagation of shocks between parts of the sector while staying entirely consistent with the big picture framed by the core forecasting model and the underlying scenario. The simulation framework allows standard macroeconomic developments to be captured, but one-off measures such as government wage and salary compensation and loan moratoria can also be easily implemented. The main output of the simulation is a set of industry-level performance and profitability variables. These variables can be used for various types of analysis, such as credit risk modelling and profitability and liquidity analysis. Some of them - such as forecasting portfolio default rates - are shown in the paper. The historical default rate estimates obtained are accurate and economically sensible for most industries and exhibit high reliability even under severe economic conditions. Given its national accounting framework and its level of detail, the model can be used to support decision-making processes and to evaluate the effects of existing or planned economic policies. Two different scenarios are considered to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed approach.
Keywords: Credit default; default rate forecast; economic shock propagation; input-output tables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G32 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
free of charge
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2022:y:2022:i:2:id:1345:p:158-192
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Redakce Politické ekonomie, Vysoká škola ekonomická, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
Access Statistics for this article
Politická ekonomie is currently edited by Jiřina Bulisová
More articles in Politická ekonomie from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().