Testing Real Interest Rate Parity for EU5 Countries: 200 Years of Data, Non-normality, Non-linearity and Breaks

Veli Yilanci and Önder Özgür ()

Politická ekonomie, 2025, vol. 2025, issue 3, 528-565

Abstract: Purpose: This paper aims to examine the real interest rate parity (RIP) theory for EU5 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) versus the USA. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing RALS-FADF and RALS-FKSS unit root tests, this study addresses non-normality, non-linearity and structural breaks in real interest rate differentials. Findings: The results confirm the RIP theory, indicating mean reversion of real interest rate differentials and highlighting impact of financial integration on monetary policy independence and arbitrage opportunities. The study notes that central banks' ability to influence domestic economies through interest rates is limited due to global financial interconnectedness. Originality/value: The paper offers a new test and bases its empirical setup on whether interest rate differentials are non-normally distributed. The test also considers real interest rate non-linearity and the non-normality in the analysis.

Keywords: Real interest rate parity; unit root; Fourier approximation; structural breaks; European countries; RALS terms; non-linearity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E43 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1448

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