Una valutazione dellÕausteritˆ e del debito pubblico italiani (An assessment of Italian austerity programs and public debt)

Daniela Tavasci and Luigi Ventimiglia

Moneta e Credito, 2020, vol. 73, issue 292, 355-384

Abstract: Partendo da unÕanalisi del debito di Sylos Labini (2003) e Pasinetti (1998), il presente articolo re-esamina criticamente le raccomandazioni di politica economica suggerite dalle teorie che scoraggiano lÕintervento dello stato e sostengono lÕausteritˆ, incluse lÕequivalenza ricardiana, lo spiazzamento, e la struttura analitica IS-LM. Questo lavoro si fonda su unÕanalisi ampia dei dati per poi concentrarsi su tre modelli econometrici: un primo modello di correzione dellÕerrore vettoriale (VEC) analizza la relazione tra debito pubblico e PIL nel lungo periodo; un modello di autoregressione vettoriale multidimensionale (VAR) testa la relazione tra produzione, componenti del debito, differenziale dei tassi di interesse (spread) e tasso di cambio nel breve periodo; e un modello VAR aggiuntivo esamina il saldo primario nelle sue componenti, entrate e spese. Infine, ispirandosi a Sylos Labini (2003), il lavoro conclude con una nota a proposito del ruolo dellÕinvestimento e della relazione basso investimento-bassa crescita del reddito in Italia. Starting from a Sylos LabiniÕs (2003) and PasinettiÕs (1998) debt analysis, this article critically reviews the policy recommendations suggested by theories which discourage state intervention and support austerity, including the Ricardian equivalence, the crowding out, and the IS-LM analytical framework. This work relies on a wide-ranging data analysis and on three econometric models: a vector error correction (VEC) model analyses the relation between public debt and GDP in the long-run; a vector auto-regression model (VAR) tests the relation between GDP and the component of debt, interest rates spread and exchange rate in the short-run; and an additional VAR model examines primary balance components including fiscal spending and revenues. Finally, inspired by Sylos-Labini (2003), the paper concludes with a reflection on the role of investment and on the viscous circle, low investment-low growth in Italy.

Keywords: fiscal austerity; debt sustainability; stagnation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E60 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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