Pandemia, inflazione e politica monetaria (Pandemic, inflation and monetary policy)

Ignazio Visco ()
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Ignazio Visco: Banca d'Italia

Moneta e Credito, 2021, vol. 74, issue 296, 239-247

Abstract: I profondi cambiamenti indotti dalla pandemia stanno investendo non solo l'attivita' economica ma anche i prezzi relativi e, almeno temporaneamente, l'inflazione. Tali cambiamenti devono essere valutati con molta attenzione dalle banche centrali, ricordando che la reazione della politica monetaria alle variazioni dell'inflazione non e' mai automatica, ma dipende in modo complesso dalla natura degli shock che colpiscono l'economia. Nell'attuale contesto, l'Eurosistema continuera' a garantire il necessario supporto all'economia finché il mercato del lavoro restera' debole e il grado di capacita' inutilizzata si manterra' elevato. Quando verra' il momento, la sfida per la politica monetaria sara' quella di saper correttamente tirare il freno, senza provocare tensioni e restando comunque pronta a premere di nuovo l'acceleratore qualora ciò tornasse necessario. The profound changes brought about by the pandemic are affecting not only economic activity but also relative prices and, at least temporarily, inflation. These changes must be carefully examined by central banks, keeping in mind that the reaction of monetary policy to fluctuations in inflation is never automatic, but depends in a complex way on the nature of the shocks affecting the economy. In the current context, the Eurosystem will continue to provide the necessary support to the economy as long as the labour market remains weak and the degree of spare capacity remains high. When the time comes, the challenge for monetary policy will be to know how to apply the brakes correctly, without causing tensions, and still being ready to accelerate if it turns out to be necessary again.

Keywords: monetary policy reaction function; demand and supply shocks; bottlenecks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 E31 E50 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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