Test ing the Hysteresis in Youth Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

Nuran Coşkun ()
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Nuran Coşkun: Mersin University, Postal: Mersin,Turkey

Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2021, vol. 6, issue 1, 97-112

Abstract: Unemployment rate is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators. As a result of that substantial number of studies investigate unemployment rate and its hysteria since it has direct and indirect effects on the other macroeconomic indicators such as growth, income and wealth. The aim of this study is to investigate unemployment rate and its hysteria among the youth unemployment with graduated from university in Turkey with taking into consider gender. Time series methods are utilized to test the hysteria for youth unemployment population. The gender-based job participation rate and unemployment rate of the youth population in the 15-24 age is used for testing hysteresis in youth unemployment between 2014: 01-2020: 09 and the finding reveals that, hysteresis hypothesis is valid for youth population even taking into consider gender according to ADF test statistics. On the other hand, taking into consider sharp breaks (Zivot & Andrews, 1992 and Narayan & Popp, 2010) structuralist approach to natural hypothesis is valid. However, fourier ADF test results both support structuralist approach and hysteresis together. Therefore, as a conclusion this test has mixed results.

Keywords: Youth Unemployment Rate; Hysteresis; Natural Rate Hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J21 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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