Nowcasting regional job growth using payroll processing company data

Keith Phillips and Christopher Slijk
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Christopher Slijk: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Postal: Dallas, TX, USA

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 2017, issue 2, 189-198

Abstract: Data from large payroll processing companies are a potential source of regional job growth estimates that are timelier than official government statistics. Monthly private sector employment data from ADP, LLC is available for 29 U.S. states and Washington DC about 10 days prior to official employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a simple model with real-time data, lags of job growth and the coincident month ADP estimates, we find that for all 30 regions the information in the ADP is statistically significant in nowcasting the most recent month of job growth. Our results suggest that the ADP data are an important source of information for analysts conducting regional current analysis.

Keywords: Nowcasting; real-time data; payroll processing data; regional dataJEL classification: C13; C53; C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:iosjes:0072

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