THE "DOBRESCU MACROMODEL" OF THE ROMANIAN MARKET ECONOMY - 2005 VERSION YEARLY FORECAST AUTUMN FORECAST

Bianca Pauna, Ion Ghizdeanu (), Cornelia Scutaru, Petre Fomin and Corina Saman
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Petre Fomin: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2008, vol. 5, issue 4, 206-209

Abstract: In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2004). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.

Keywords: model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E2 E6 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:206-209

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