Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

Petre Caraiani ()
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Petre Caraiani: Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2009, vol. 6, issue 3, 75-84

Abstract: In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

Keywords: forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:75-84

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