MEDIUM-RUN SCENARIOS OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

Emilian Dobrescu ()

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2000, issue 1, 8-28

Abstract: The paper presents two scenarios, an inertial scenario and a restructuring scenario based on the last version of the author’s macromodel (Dobrescu 2000). The forecasts were made over a five-six years period and the indicators used were total population, population over 15 years, labour force, total retired people and retired people receiving state social insurance, excluding farmers. The inertial scenario (INERSC) has been simulated in several versions, all of them proving that the Romanian economy cannot surpass the present stagflation. The modelling premises for the restructuring scenario (RESSC) are strictly depending on the creation of a well-structured and functional market mechanism.

Keywords: economic strategy; macromodel; Romanian transition economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 P2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:1:p:8-28

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